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(ThyBlackMan.com) There is so much turbulence in the electorate today, reading the polls alone do not provide an accurate representation of where the race for President stands. Since Kamala Harris entered the race there has been a palpable increase in enthusiasm in the Democratic Party and, she has attracted many high profile Republican endorsements. Something not seen before and therefore difficult to calculate.
Looking beyond the topline poll numbers for each candidate, I believe a clearer picture emerges of the likely winner of the 2024 election. Overall, that picture appears to favor Harris. Here’s why:
Fundraising: The Harris campaign has set an all-time record by raising over $1billion in just 80 days. Much of that has come from small dollar donors, people giving $200 or less. Meanwhile Trump, once the king of small dollar donors (SDDs), has seen a precipitous decline in his cash haul from them.
In Trump’s 2016 race against Clinton, roughly 52% of his take came from SDD’s, in 2020 it was half and, so far this cycle, it is down to a third. Whether this decline is because his followers have blown their cash on his ‘merch’ or, as his campaign says, it’s because of the economy, there’s no question he has taken in considerably less SDD money than Kamala even though he has been running much longer. Money talks.
Defections: There has been a large, and growing, number of Republicans who have come out for Harris, including those with high name recognition. Dick Cheney, former Republican Vice President, Alberto Gonzalez, former Republican Attorney General and former Federal Judge Michael Luttig are among the numerous luminaries in the Republican Party who have openly endorsed Harris.
Meanwhile, the highest profile Democrats who have endorsed Trump are Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard. Neither of whom had any stature in the Democratic Party when they defected. It remains to be seen how many Republican votes will be peeled off by these defections, but it’s worth remembering that Nikki Haley continued to get 20% of Republican Primary votes long after she had dropped out of the race.
Floor vs. Ceiling: To the above point about defections, it is also noteworthy that Trump, throughout his three runs for President, and including when he was President, never cracked 50%. In his two previous campaigns he never came close to winning the popular vote.
Trump does have a high floor of rock-solid support, but he has a low ceiling. The highest his polling has ever been is the mid-40s and with the broad coalition of support Harris has cobbled together, her ability to reach above 50% is highly probable.
Ground Game: The candidates are pursuing two different approaches to Election Day as evidenced by how they are building their so-called “ground game.” Get-out-the vote (GOTV) efforts have been a staple of campaigns for office at any level, and while the Harris campaign is pursuing the more traditional approach, the Trump campaign’s GOTV effort is what the press has called “novel.”
Harris has built out a network of field offices with full-time staffers and volunteers who are canvassing neighborhoods, knocking on doors and engaging voters. They are targeting “likely” voters, those who have voted in previous elections, along with newly registered people.
The Trump campaign has outsourced its GOTV operation to Political Action Committees and has only a skeleton operation even in the battleground states. They are targeting “low propensity voters”, those who vote infrequently, if at all, aiming at young White (and Black) men. There is a great deal of skepticism, even among Republicans, whether this approach will yield a sufficient number of votes to win the election.
GenZ: One of the biggest wildcards this cycle is the age cohort 18-29, or GenZ. Who will they vote for, and will they vote at all, are questions that will have a determinative effect on the outcome of the election. Many were completely turned off when the race was between Trump and Biden and they now appear to be much more engaged since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket.
The Harvard University Youth Poll, one of the preeminent surveys of young people, shows that their concerns are roughly in line with the larger electorate; namely the economy. But they consume news and information differently than older voters. They are much more reliant on social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram to stay informed, and are less likely to be viewers of cable news. As the younger candidate, and with the backing of more pop-culture and social media icons like Taylor Swift, Harris has a distinct advantage here. Again, the biggest unanswered question is, will they turn out?
Black Men vs. White Women: Ah, Black men and White women, perhaps the biggest wildcards of all. How these two groups vote will seal the election for the ultimate victor. Both are being ardently pursued and neither has made their intentions clear.
There’s been a lot of talk in the media about Black men moving more towards Trump, but that has not shown up in any of the major polls. The numbers are basically the same as in 2016 and 2020. In fact, the Congress & Cognac tour of Black barbershops by Republican Congressmen Byron Donalds of Florida and Wesley Hunt of Texas was short-lived, and then quietly disappeared without a blip on the radar screen.
As for White women, code named “suburban” women, the last time they gave the majority of their votes to a Democrat was for Bill Clinton, not Hillary. Despite his misogyny and abusive behavior, you know, “Grab ‘em by the…,” Trump won the majority of their votes in both of his previous runs. The Supreme Court’s Dobbs Decision on abortion, and the resultant movement for reproductive rights however has served as a catalyst bringing White women out to the polls in droves, and we’ll see if that can overcome their past proclivity to vote “White” above all else.
So these are some of the tea leaves I have read to see where this election is going. Trump remains a formidable, if implausible, candidate and Kamala has broken through as someone people can see being President. If Kamala has the edge, it’s because she has penetrated “the culture.” The organic nature of her rise, demonstrated by the powerful chanting, “We’re not going back” that originated from the crowds at her rallies, has captured something not seen since Obama ’08. And we know how that turned out.
Staff Writer; Harry Sewell
Drop an email at; HS@ThyBlackMan.com.
